<\/p>\n
Part Two<\/b><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Turkey\u2019s and Azerbaijan\u2019s Goals:<\/b> Turkey, of course, is the third-largest beneficiary in the Caucasus after Russia and Iran. Ankara\u2019s plans to expand eastward date back to the Ottoman era. Even 110 years after the genocide, nothing has changed. Turkey is undergoing yet another transformation of national identity, and this change cannot happen at the expense of Europe, but rather the regions where states are weak economically and in terms of security, which is fertile ground for Turkish expansion.<\/span> These regions include Syria, Armenia, Lebanon, partly Iraq, and the Balkans, where Turkish infiltration or intervention does not have a military character but operates through soft power \u2014 economy, cultural, and linguistic policies. The largest platform for Turkish policy in Europe is Hungary \u2014 Magyarorsz\u00e1g \u2014 which is also a Turkic ethnic entity. To use European platforms for its expansion plans, Turkey has invested billions in Hungary, where Prime Minister Orban, known for his dictatorial reputation, has repeatedly demonstrated his Turkophile stance and openly advocates for pro-Turkish policies, acting as Ankara\u2019s voice in Brussels.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Budapest hosted an informal summit of leaders of Turkic states, where Erdo\u011fan and Aliyev also spoke. Erdo\u011fan\u2019s speech was very clear: \u201cThe tragedies in Cyprus, Nagorno-Karabakh, Bosnia, and today in Gaza remind us of the necessity of thinking beyond our borders. The launch of the Middle Corridor, which would ensure secure and uninterrupted communication between the East and the West, and which is being brought to the forefront as a strategic route, is very important.\u201d Further analysis is unnecessary.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Turkey places immense importance on the cooperation of Turkic states, which has strategic significance. Ankara seeks to ensure the engagement of all member states in the organization, aiming for the success of the Middle Corridor, with the goal of realizing neo-Ottoman ambitions through mutually beneficial agreements, establishing a significant economic and military-political presence between Europe, Russia, and Iran. Here lies the basis for the discourse that Azerbaijan has been actively promoting over the past 7-8 years. It is the so-called \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d thesis, which appears unrealistic but is strategically significant in the long term.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n If we objectively analyze the issue without emotions, Baku\u2019s goal is the settlement of 300,000 Azerbaijanis in Armenia. The idea of \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d is a fabricated concept, the idea of \u200b\u200bthe Azerbaijani elites to have an invented homeland, with which they want to establish themselves as a nation-state. This process began in the months following the Artsakh movement\u2014from Baku to Sumgait and Maragha\u2014organizing the genocide of Armenians in Azerbaijan, followed by war and anti-Armenian rhetoric, which starts from kindergarten, continues through school curricula, reaches universities, and then the so-called \u201cacademy,\u201d gaining scientific legitimacy and becoming part of political discourse and doctrine. Aliyev\u2019s regime is not naive; it is actively using these theses for internal mobilization and to neutralize opposition.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n In this context, we should not succumb to emotions; it\u2019s necessary to adopt a balanced, firm, and unwavering stance through concrete actions. The \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d thesis is merely a geopolitical tool and has five main goals:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n So, what is Azerbaijan\u2019s goal in promoting the fictional idea of \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d? Through this, Azerbaijan aims not only to claim territorial rights but also to transform into a force that seeks to revise and rewrite history and national borders, just like the Islamic State terrorist organization. Baku\u2019s policies resemble those of radical terrorist groups.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n In this context, is it realistic to expect positive reactions from global and military centers, regardless of whether the anti-national Pashinyan junta or someone else is at the helm of power in Armenia?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Geopolitical Situation:<\/b> Let\u2019s try to analyze the issue from a global geopolitical perspective, based on the positions of three major powers.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n How realistic are these positions? Given the current global uncertainty, only what a collapsing state internally allows is realistic. The Pashinyan government has depoliticized the generation, paralyzed diplomacy, and its security architecture portrays Armenia as an aggressor and Azerbaijan as a legitimate claimant. In such conditions, continuing to tolerate Pashinyan\u2019s rule makes these plans seem plausible\u2014not because of Azerbaijan\u2019s strength, but due to Armenia\u2019s weakness. Remember, at any time, the enemy can declare its so-called \u201chistoric rights.\u201d We may pretend to sleep, ignore, mock\u2014but this only weakens us and diminishes vigilance. Enemy schemes only materialize when the nation\u2019s instinct for survival is numb and self-awareness is abandoned from within\u2014lacking leaders, elites, and purpose.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n In this context, let\u2019s analyze Lavrov\u2019s visit to Yerevan, alongside Iran\u2019s deputy defense minister\u2019s arrival. These short diplomatic contacts send clear messages, coded signals for three parties: the West, Turkey, and Pashinyan, who serves Turkey\u2019s interests. The main hypothesis is that Armenia\u2019s leadership is engaging in a new deal. Lavrov\u2019s and Iran\u2019s high-ranking official\u2019s visits come as coordinated efforts to neutralize Turkey and Azerbaijan\u2019s expanding influence in the South Caucasus. Currently, Moscow\u2019s and Tehran\u2019s interests align, but there is a reservation regarding the potential launch of the so-called \u201cZangezur Corridor\u201d through Armenian territory. It\u2019s possible that Pashinyan has agreed to make two key concessions: to step back from Euro-integration plans, and to strengthen Russian influence in Syunik Province by handing over control of the \u201ctransport corridor\u201d to the FSB. In this scenario, Armenia\u2019s sovereignty would be partly sacrificed, while gaining political protection. Pashinyan will present this as a victory, claiming he avoided the corridor. But in reality, the following will happen: the FSB will be established in Syunik; the sovereignty of Armenia, which has dependent security, will be controlled by the Russian special service, secondly, in exchange for this concession, it will be possible to reproduce Nikol\u2019s power, with a loyal approach to Moscow, and Nikol will strengthen his positions inside Armenia.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n But a second scenario cannot be ruled out either. Russia and Iran might simply turn Pashinyan into a tool again\u2014to temporarily cut Armenia off from the western-oriented path, and once that goal is achieved, Moscow could shift its support and back a more reliable and predictable partner who can\u2014with Russian support\u2014actually keep Syunik as a strategic buffer\u2014against Turkish and Western influence. Moreover, such a person is more favorable to Russia, because the Artsakh issue is a volatile firecracker.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n What does all this mean for us? Today, Armenia has become one of the key subjects of regional big deals, but not from the position of a sovereign actor. Nikol is trying at all costs to maintain power by selling off pieces of sovereignty to external partners. In this process, the security front of Syunik is turning into a field of strategic maneuvers where Moscow and Tehran seek to strengthen their presence\u2014at the expense of the West and Turkey.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Syunik does not begin at Lake Sevan nor end at the Meghri crossing. It is not only the backbone of Armenian statehood but also a crossroads of several civilizations, a meeting point of interests of several states. This government has turned Syunik into a global political exchange, where Turkey and Azerbaijan are buying and selling shares\u2014virtually.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The greatest tragedy is that we have been turned into cheap pawns, and now our rights and sovereignty are being negotiated, with the only solution being the implementation of a vertical diplomatic vector. We believe that the interests of Moscow and Tehran currently align with Armenia’s national and state interests.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Will this consensus stand the test of time? Will Pashinyan hinder this regional architecture, which is a forced combination? Refusing it would be political suicide. But we believe Nikol will secretly continue to strengthen Turkish-Azerbaijani influence in Armenia\u2014if, of course, he and his team remain in power until then.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Part Two Turkey\u2019s and Azerbaijan\u2019s Goals: Turkey, of course, is the third-largest beneficiary in the Caucasus after Russia and Iran. Ankara\u2019s plans to expand eastward date back to the Ottoman era. Even 110 years after the genocide, nothing has changed. Turkey is undergoing yet another transformation of national identity, and this change cannot<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2601,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\n
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