{"id":3045,"date":"2025-08-08T19:15:42","date_gmt":"2025-08-08T19:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/?p=3045"},"modified":"2025-11-04T12:32:47","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T12:32:47","slug":"turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkish\u2013Israeli game: Syunik, David\u2019s Corridor and Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"

Current geopolitical events change so instantly that one can hardly guess the next development. For example: France is in shock \u2014 the Naval Group company, which is the largest firm supplying the French Navy and builds submarines, aircraft carriers and warships, was subject to an unprecedented cyberattack. Let us note that those aircraft carriers are nuclear-capable. Only 24 hours after the \u00c9lys\u00e9e Palace announced that official Paris would vote in favor this autumn of recognizing the State of Palestine at the UN, secret codes, archives, employee conversations, correspondence and intelligence on other countries \u2014 in total 13 gigabytes of electronic documents belonging to the French naval forces \u2014 were completely hacked. This is reminiscent of the power blackout that affected all of Spain a few days ago, when the electrical grids went down across the country for 12 hours as a result of a cyberattack following a similar announcement that Madrid intended to recognize the State of Palestine.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I believe the Armenian authorities \u2014 who recognized Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan \u2014 are on the same path, because the vector of foreign policy is acting in contradictory directions. Thus, on one hand Armenia recognized Armenian Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan, opposing its independence \u2014 which is the basis for a new war \u2014 and on the other hand, after a phone call with Erdo\u011fan a day earlier, on June 21, 2024, it recognized Palestinian independence by joining the UN GA resolutions, justifying that as a step toward establishing peace. As we see, words are unnecessary \u2014 especially if we take into account that the proclamation of a Palestinian state does not depend solely on Yerevan\u2019s political will. I have repeatedly addressed this topic, noting that within the logic of the New Middle East the Palestinian state should be proclaimed in some form \u2014 particularly in these confused times when Washington has largely neutralized the Shiite factor in Syria and Lebanon \u2014 the future Palestinian state from birth will be toothless: disarmed and with limited access to the sea. In other words, all this will be some form of an international step aimed at stopping armed struggle, which will calm Arab passions, control anti\u2011Israeli actions, and force Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states to invest, develop economies, and allow people to live with open borders \u2014 enabling free trade and movement.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I have spoken a lot about the regional role and importance of Saudi Arabia and emphasized the need for official Yerevan to pursue proactive foreign policy and maximize gains through economic diplomacy. The Americans don\u2019t flirt with the Saudis for no reason. Leaving aside American interests and stakes in Saudi oil resources over the past 30 years, note that Saudi Arabia is in a way the center of the Sunni world and does not want to cede that baton to Washington\u2019s ally Turkey. But this is politics and everyone looks after its interests. If the US does not, even partially, satisfy Saudi Arabia \u2014 i.e., the main representative of Sunnis \u2014 its place and role on the new global economic map will be ceded.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The US is China\u2019s counterweight, and it is logical that along the New Silk Road, or under the Belt and Road Initiative, Washington should try to strengthen Beijing\u2019s regional competitors \u2014 in this case, India. This was clear in the recent India\u2013Pakistan war when China greatly helped Pakistan, India\u2019s enemy, while the US unintentionally supported Delhi. By the way, a batch of Apache helicopters, which the US rarely sells to other countries, was sent to India as part of a $600 million deal. The problem here is multilayered, because many decisions in Pakistan cannot bypass the country\u2019s Armed Forces institution, and the Pakistani army is largely under an American counterbalance. That means the US in this region, besides China, monitors and controls the balance of forces. Therefore creating alternative global trade routes is among America\u2019s priorities, perhaps even more than the Ukrainian quagmire. To be an alternative to the Chinese route, a regional state of China\u2019s scale \u2014 India \u2014 must enter the game, and the route from India should go through the Middle East and from there to Europe. Thus, today a central role in the Middle East is reserved for Saudi Arabia. Seven months ago, when Donald Trump took the helm of the White House, I addressed this topic and predicted that within the anti\u2011China campaign the US would need to requalify an old ally in the Middle East; I also noted the objective cessation of hostilities in Gaza, which is already becoming reality. The US must reach Saudi Arabia via India, and Saudi Arabia, as I said, is a key player in the Islamic world \u2014 an unrivaled oil giant. It\u2019s no coincidence that Trump responded to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman\u2019s appeal and lifted US sanctions on Syria, thereby clearing the diplomatic, economic and political field in Syria for the Saudis, who in turn must reduce Turkey\u2019s role in Syria. The game is large and the arrangement of chess pieces can change every second.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Without a relatively secure Middle East, it\u2019s impossible to build an alternative mega trade-economy route. For that purpose, pro\u2011Iranian militant groups were neutralized in the process, Israel\u2019s security was strengthened, because it was clear to all players that if Iran simultaneously activated its proxies in the Shiite crescent \u2014 in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Palestine, from Hezbollah to Hamas, the Houthis, Popular Mobilization, Fatimids, Zahrayans \u2014 and if they all acted at once, then the existence of the Israeli state would be in question within 24 hours. Israel\u2019s preemptive strike and the assurance of US participation pursued precisely this goal: to make Iran compliant and to ensure it won\u2019t disrupt regional cooperation or large economic projects.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At the same time a logical question arises: who will service such a long and large route \u2014 from infrastructure to services? The logical answer is India\u2019s population, which can become a competitor to Chinese labor in the Asian region. Indians work for low wages, so they can fill that field. Thus India will become a key actor in a complex geopolitical network \u2014 with the possibility of a land route, military superiority relative to Pakistan, and as an economic counterweight to China in global trade opportunities. However, we don\u2019t predict all this to happen peacefully and safely, because there are many obstacles on the way that the US and Israel must overcome. The first major challenge is creating new corridors, with their security risks. We are talking about the division of Syria and Iraq, the creation of David\u2019s Corridor, which I have probably addressed a few times in the last six months, even presenting the danger of Syria\u2019s fragmentation and its effect on Armenia, particularly the issue of creating a so\u2011called corridor through Syunik.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s try to see what is happening in the South Caucasus and to us.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A few days ago US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met in Scotland \u2014 at Trump\u2019s golf club \u2014 and reached a pivotal agreement. Usually we don\u2019t pay much attention to such meetings and simply call them routine or ceremonial, but in fact we should closely follow every statement and action by leaders of the great powers. At the EU\u2011US meeting a very important, pivotal decision was adopted: Europe will import $750 billion worth of energy carriers from the United States over the next three years, and the EU also pledged to make an additional $600 billion in investments in the United States. The question arises: what is strange here \u2014 isn\u2019t this just an ordinary economic deal? I would say this is a fateful agreement that can seriously transform Europe\u2019s economic relations with the US and affect energy geopolitics \u2014 especially for countries like Azerbaijan that supply energy to the EU. What does the EU\u2019s purchase of $750 billion in energy from the US mean?<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This step implies that:<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The EU will create a more explicit dependence on the US in the energy agenda, especially in liquified natural gas, oil and advanced energy technologies.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. The EU is moving away from the classical strategy of energy diversification based on several stable suppliers \u2014 Norway, Azerbaijan, Algeria and partly the Caspian region.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. This reinforces US claim to hegemony over Europe\u2019s energy.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

    What does the EU\u2019s $600 billion investment in the US mean?<\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. It mainly concerns EU technological, financial and industrial businesses entering the US, strengthening ties in strategic sectors.<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. EU industrial capital is being moved out of Asia (China, India) and concentrated in the US \u2014 a geopolitically more reliable partner.<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. This step allows the EU to more easily engage with the US market and expand exports to offset energy import costs.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

       <\/p>\n

      What could this mean for Azerbaijan?<\/span><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      1. The EU will reduce its energy dependence on Azerbaijan.<\/span><\/li>\n
      2. After this agreement, the EU will give priority in its energy strategy to the US, which means:<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

         <\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Azerbaijan will remain a secondary supplier for potential local crises.<\/span><\/li>\n
        2. Azerbaijan\u2019s role in the energy market will diminish.<\/span><\/li>\n
        3. The EU\u2011US agreement would allow the EU to avoid becoming a victim of Azerbaijani monopoly as happened in 2022\u20132023.<\/span><\/li>\n
        4. Azerbaijan\u2019s energy model as a political lever over the EU would be seriously disrupted.<\/span><\/li>\n
        5. Azerbaijan will lose the strategic advantage of being a \u201ctransit great power\u201d:<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

           <\/p>\n

            \n
          1. If the EU begins importing mass amounts of energy from the US with guaranteed supply volumes and security, the convoluted and unstable Caucasus routes (Caspian\u2013Georgia\u2013Turkey) will no longer be a priority.<\/span><\/li>\n
          2. This weakens the international promotion arguments for the \u201cZangezur corridor.\u201d It is no coincidence that the most interested parties in this matter are Ankara, Baku and the authorities in Yerevan.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            This agreement is a clear signal to the world that:<\/span><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. The EU will build its strategic energy future with the US.<\/span><\/li>\n
            2. Intermediate suppliers like Azerbaijan will become not strategic pillars but semi\u2011functional actors.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              In the entire context the statement by Ankara\u2019s ambassador in Baku is interesting; in fact, it brings clarity.<\/span><\/p>\n

              In fact, the authorities they have installed in Ankara, Baku and Yerevan are beating their chests to give Azerbaijan a way through Syunik. On this issue Nikol Pashinyan and his team\u2019s stance has long been clear \u2014 they\u2019ve named it the \u201cCrossroads of Peace,\u201d but in reality it must serve the realization of the British\u2011Turkish Turan corridor idea. Vahagn Khachaturyan, who works for Nikol as a president, only accepting credentials from ambassadors, and occupying the territory and chair of a state institute at the expense of the people\u2019s taxes, pursues the same line. He recently made a stunning, anti-Armenian statement regarding the Syunik corridor.<\/span><\/p>\n

              To the one who considers himself president I will say one simple truth: if the road is handed over to international management or any foreign organization, Armenia\u2019s presumed sovereignty will become a dream \u2014 threatening the Armenian existential presence in this region. So don\u2019t read meaningless speeches that claim we will develop if the border opens. A capable government would have ensured development in at least one direction within seven years. These people even imagine the state machinery, diplomacy, and foreign policy only as what their masters tell them, and nothing more.<\/span><\/p>\n

              The Armenian government has put us into a terribly hellish and super\u2011dangerous game: it wants to paralyze the energy system in the country, drive out the Russian capital and teach us again to the dark future. Note also that not all this will happen at once because an election year is ahead; it is a period for gathering and reassembling the electorate, recruiting new zombies. All this will be implemented step by step. Recall that during the last period of Democratic governance, high\u2011ranking American officials said: Armenia must learn to endure a few cold winters to become sovereign. Now the Electric Networks of Armenia will find itself in a difficult situation; we are already learning about rotational outages, and later they\u2019ll say the nuclear plant is dangerous and must be closed, and similar things. I have addressed these topics many times, given clear assessments, and I also envision concrete solutions. Let me stress only one thing: we will chase these people away; we must put an end to their genocidal and destroying policies. I also know that everyone is waiting for concrete solutions and time is not working in our favor, but the breath of a reborn Armenia is already being felt.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Current geopolitical events change so instantly that one can hardly guess the next development. For example: France is in shock \u2014 the Naval Group company, which is the largest firm supplying the French Navy and builds submarines, aircraft carriers and warships, was subject to an unprecedented cyberattack. Let us note that those aircraft carriers are<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2815,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTurkish\u2013Israeli game: Syunik, David\u2019s Corridor and Syria - Genesis Armenia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Turkish\u2013Israeli game: Syunik, David\u2019s Corridor and Syria - Genesis Armenia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Current geopolitical events change so instantly that one can hardly guess the next development. 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For example: France is in shock \u2014 the Naval Group company, which is the largest firm supplying the French Navy and builds submarines, aircraft carriers and warships, was subject to an unprecedented cyberattack. Let us note that those aircraft carriers are","og_url":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/","og_site_name":"Genesis Armenia","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/GenesisArmeniaFund","article_published_time":"2025-08-08T19:15:42+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-11-04T12:32:47+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":678,"url":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/09def3ebbc44ff3426b28fcd88c83554_1753949576.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"\u0531\u0562\u0580\u0561\u0570\u0561\u0574 \u0533\u0561\u057d\u057a\u0561\u0580\u0575\u0561\u0576","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Abraham Gasparyan","Est. reading time":"12 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/"},"author":{"name":"\u0531\u0562\u0580\u0561\u0570\u0561\u0574 \u0533\u0561\u057d\u057a\u0561\u0580\u0575\u0561\u0576","@id":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/#\/schema\/person\/5962f01ca2a6d265c1fc8c61708162cf"},"headline":"Turkish\u2013Israeli game: Syunik, David\u2019s Corridor and Syria","datePublished":"2025-08-08T19:15:42+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-04T12:32:47+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/"},"wordCount":2098,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/09def3ebbc44ff3426b28fcd88c83554_1753949576.jpeg","articleSection":["Research"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/","url":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/turkish-israeli-game-syunik-davids-corridor-and-syria\/","name":"Turkish\u2013Israeli game: Syunik, David\u2019s Corridor and Syria - 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