{"id":4085,"date":"2026-06-23T11:21:22","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T11:21:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/?p=4085"},"modified":"2026-06-24T06:25:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T06:25:58","slug":"data-driven-insights-into-the-western-azerbaijan-discourse-how-the-western-azerbaijan-community-and-state-propaganda-construct-the-narrative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/data-driven-insights-into-the-western-azerbaijan-discourse-how-the-western-azerbaijan-community-and-state-propaganda-construct-the-narrative\/","title":{"rendered":"Data-Driven Insights into the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d Discourse:  How the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d and State Propaganda Construct the Narrative"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>The Need in \u201cNarrative Equilibrium\u201d and Its Strategic Value<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In the pre-2020 period, the Azerbaijani government consistently sought to achieve what might be called a <em>narrative equilibrium<\/em> with Armenia. This effort was characterized by sustained attempts to construct or amplify stories of Azerbaijani victimhood, particularly through campaigns to document or, at times, fabricate alleged atrocity crimes committed by Armenians during the first Nagorno-Karabakh war. The strategic aim was to compel international organizations and foreign policymakers to adopt <em>\u201cboth-sides-ist\u201d<\/em> approaches to the conflict, thereby neutralizing the moral asymmetry created by the well-documented anti-Armenian pogroms and forced displacements in Soviet Azerbaijan between 1988 and 1991.<\/p>\n<p>Within this framework, irredentist narratives such as <em>\u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d<\/em> and the claimed <em>\u201cright to return\u201d<\/em> for those who left Armenia during the late-Soviet and early post-Soviet periods served a dual purpose. Initially, they were designed to mirror and counterbalance Armenian claims of ethnic cleansing, effectively placing the two societies on ostensibly equal moral footing.<\/p>\n<p>However, after the 44-day war of 2020, such irredentist claims were deliberately maintained and amplified to achieve <em>further leverage and prevalence<\/em> over Armenian side on two interconnected tracks. First, they were used to silence international criticism about Azerbaijan\u2019s responsibility for unleashing the 2020 war, the nine-month blockade of the Lachin Corridor, and the forced displacement of approximately 110,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. Second, they began serving as an expansionist instrument, pushing Armenian government toward new concessions by reframing the so-called <em>\u201cright to return\u201d<\/em> not merely as a humanitarian or symbolic issue, but as a potential basis for Azerbaijani settlement within Armenia\u2019s sovereign territory itself.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In this sense, the pursuit of <em>\u201cboth-sides-ism,\u201d<\/em> and where possible, <em>narrative superiority<\/em> over Armenia, has remained a central pillar of Azerbaijan\u2019s post-war information strategy. The \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d (WAC) embodies this approach, systematically mobilizing three major rhetorical clusters that reinforce the state\u2019s propaganda line:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Victimhood framing &#8211; retelling stories of historical persecution and displacement;<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Demands for action or remedy &#8211; invoking concepts of justice, rights, and return;<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Appeals to international actors &#8211; positioning Azerbaijan as the aggrieved party seeking fairness under international law.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These rhetorical tools not only abuse, but also attempt to steal the structure and moral authority of human-rights discourse, appropriating its language of justice, rights, and return to legitimize expansionist objectives. By mimicking the vocabulary of victimhood and international law, the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d narrative disguises political irredentism as a humanitarian cause. In doing so, it seeks to erase the moral distinction between aggressor and aggrieved, turning historical memory itself into a contested arena of influence and equivalence. As Saparov (2024) observes, <em>\u201cthe combined effect of these techniques creates a reassuring impression that what is happening is an ordinary territorial dispute between two states\u201d.<\/em> In reality, what we observe is a deliberate re-engineering of history and perception, an effort to normalize expansionist claims under the veneer of restored justice.<\/p>\n<p>Utilizing a systematic data analysis approach, this study analyzes narratives surrounding \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d and the claimed \u201cright to return\u201d in the discourse of \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d (WAC) and the Azerbaijani government. \u00a0It aims to track the frequency of irredentist statements issued over time, identify patterns and dominant themes in the narratives promoted by these actors, and assess the extent to which they shape Azerbaijan\u2019s irredentist agenda.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Establishment and Objectives of the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A state-backed non-governmental organization in Azerbaijan known as \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d (WAC), officially launched in August 2022 (the organization claims it is the successor of the \u201cAzerbaijan Refugee Society\u201d Association founded in 1989), has increasingly attracted public attention and intense media coverage both in Azerbaijan and abroad in recent years. \u00a0The organization positions itself as an institution advocating for the interests and rights of the so-called \u201cWestern Azerbaijanis\u201d, especially promoting the \u201cConcept of Return\u201d, which the organization defines as \u201cthe return of Azerbaijanis expelled from the territory of nowadays Armenia to their homeland and ensuring their individual and collective rights after the return as its primary goal\u201d (WAC, 2025).<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, it has received consistent support from the Azerbaijani government since its inception. On December 24, 2022, in his second meeting with the representatives of the WAC, Azerbaijani President Aliyev stated \u201cWestern Azerbaijan is our historical land\u2026and the Western Azerbaijanis will return to their native lands\u201d (WAC, 2022). On 23 November 2024, Milli Majlis released a statement severely criticizing the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for disregarding the WAC\u2019s appeals to start a dialogue on the \u201cissue of return of the people of Western Azerbaijan\u201d (The Milli Majlis of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2024). This stance has become even more resolute in the following years. On 20 December 2025, Adalat Valiyev, Head of the Department for Relations with Political Parties and Legislative Authority, took part in the subsequent general meeting of WAC and restated that the topic of \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d is a \u201cpriority state policy\u201d of the Azerbaijani government (Media.AZ, 2025).<\/p>\n<p>However, what broader themes lie behind the organization\u2019s messaging and how its activity relates to the official line are the questions this analysis aims to unpack.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Methodology and Timeframe <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A systematic data analysis approach was employed in this paper to disclose the organization\u2019s messaging and the intensity of its activity. It analyzes all WAC\u2019s statements published by the Azeri Press Agency (APA), a government-funded major media outlet in Azerbaijan, covering the timeframe from 9 January 2023 to 21 December 2025. The starting date was selected as it marks the first publication in the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d section of the APA\u2019s website, while the end date corresponds to the completion of data collection. Since publications of the news agency are available both in Azerbaijani and English, the data (<em>titles, publication dates, full texts <\/em>and<em> links<\/em> of each publication) were scraped in English. It amounted to 296 publications. This includes WAC official statements, interviews, speeches at public events such as conferences or seminars, letters addressed to international organizations, and social media posts as well as statements made by its proponents from the state apparatus.<\/p>\n<p>The scraped statements were cleaned to remove stop words (pronouns, prepositions, conjunctions, etc.), duplicates, and non-informative entries. A bigram analysis, a quantitative text analysis technique to identify the most frequent pairs of consecutive words (expressions) in text data, was then performed to reveal the overall tone and the dominant themes the WAC promotes. The resulting top 50 bigrams were identified and visualized in a wordcloud. In addition, based on the dates of publications, the statements were counted by month and visualized in a line chart to disclose the periods when the organization was relatively more active.<\/p>\n<p>The same approach and timeframe were used to scrape the official statements (<em>titles, publication dates, full texts and links<\/em>) republished by APA to ensure methodological consistency and comparability between the two datasets. Contrary to the WAC statements, the official statements required careful filtering to catch those referring to the <em>\u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d<\/em> and <em>\u201creturn\u201d<\/em> context. Therefore, a set of keywords suggestive of irredentist sentiment, most of which based on the most frequent irredentist expressions identified in the WAC\u2019s statements in advance, were predefined to filter the dataset. The list includes the following keywords\/expressions:\u00a0 <em>&#8220;Western Azerbaijan&#8221;, &#8220;Zangezur&#8221;, &#8220;ancestral land(s)&#8221;, &#8220;ancestral homeland&#8221;, &#8220;historical land(s)&#8221;, &#8220;historical homeland&#8221;, &#8220;native land(s)&#8221;, &#8220;expelled&#8221;, &#8220;ethnic cleansing&#8221;, &#8220;genocide&#8221;, &#8220;great return&#8221;, &#8220;safe return&#8221;, &#8220;dignified return&#8221;, &#8220;peaceful return&#8221;, &#8220;return process&#8221;, &#8220;Armenian constitution&#8221;, &#8220;property rights&#8221;, &#8220;Armenia abolished&#8221;, &#8220;Armenia eliminated&#8221;, &#8220;Armenian vandalism&#8221;, &#8220;anti-terror operation(s)&#8221;, &#8220;counter-terrorism measures&#8221;, &#8220;anti-Azerbaijan(i)&#8221;. <\/em>In contrast to one-word keywords, using expressions as keywords substantially increases the probability of giving more accurate matches. In addition, regular expressions (regex), a set of rules to look for specific pattern in the text data (Grimmer, 2022; Wickham, 2017), were applied to some of these keywords to match their two or more variations, for example, <em>\u201cancestral land\/ancestral lands\u201d<\/em> or <em>\u201canti-azerbaijani\/antiAzerbaijani\/anti-Azerbaijan\u201d<\/em>. A proximity-based filtering with regex patterns, a technique to identify sentences in which some specific words appear next to or near to each other, was applied specifically on the word <em>\u201creturn\u201d<\/em> to capture sentences, thus the entire statements, where the word was used in the context of the so-called <em>\u201creturn of Azerbaijanis or expelled\/displaced refugees\u201d,<\/em> and exclude all the other cases. Based on these approaches, the official statements were filtered to match either the<em> titles<\/em> or the <em>full texts<\/em> of each statement that contain at least one of the predefined keywords. It returned 602 matches. Finally, as in the case of the WAC statements, the filtered official statements were counted by month and visualized in a line chart.<\/p>\n<p><em>The web scraping and data processing were conducted with RStudio, an integrated development environment, designed for statistical computing and data visualization.<\/p>\n<p><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Findings<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Figure 1. wordcloud reflects the results of the bigram analysis. It visualizes the most frequent 50 expressions in WAC statements. The bigger the expression the more frequent it appears in the text.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Figure 1<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4097 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-1024x922.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"922\" srcset=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-1024x922.png 1024w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-300x270.png 300w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-768x691.png 768w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-1536x1382.png 1536w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-2048x1843.png 2048w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-1320x1188.png 1320w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-1100x990.png 1100w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-500x450.png 500w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-1-600x540.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><br \/>\n<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>What do these expressions tell us about the organization\u2019s messaging? Although it might seem a bit complex at first glance, distinguishing and grouping them into similar categories helps reveal the underlying themes behind the organization\u2019s messaging. The first group of expressions tell stories of alleged discrimination and forced displacement WAC\u2019s members and proponents claim they once experienced such as <em>\u201cExpelled Azerbaijanis\u201d, \u201cEthnic Cleansing\u201d, \u201cForcibly Expelled\u201d, \u201cRacial Discrimination\u201d, \u201cAnti Azerbaijani\u201d,<\/em> <em>\u201cOccupied Territories\u201d<\/em> etc. The second group, on the other hand, refers to the organization\u2019s primary objectives such as <em>\u201cDignified Return\u201d, \u201cReturn Process\u201d, \u201cAncestral Lands\u201d, \u201cWest or Western Azerbaijan\u201d, \u201cAzerbaijani Territories\u201d,<\/em> etc. \u00a0The organization also raises demands for <em>\u201cPolitical Rights\u201d, \u201cCultural Rights\u201d <\/em>and<em> \u201cCultural Heritage\u201d.<\/em> The third group of expressions seem to address the international community: <em>\u201cSecurity Council\u201d, \u201cUnited Nations\u201d, \u201cEuropean Union\u201d, \u201cInternational Law\u201d, \u201cUniversal Declaration\u201d<\/em> (perhaps referring to the \u201cUniversal Declaration of Human Rights\u201d), <em>\u201cInternational Covenant\u201d,<\/em> etc. A closer look at the picture would also reveal the absence of conciliatory wording, for example, citing cooperation or diplomacy for conflict resolution.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Figure 2. visualizes the monthly frequency of Aliyev\u2019s and WAC\u2019s irredentist statements. The higher the volume of publications the more active the organization or the official propaganda was in a given period.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Figure 2<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4100 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-1024x655.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"655\" srcset=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-1024x655.png 1024w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-768x492.png 768w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-1536x983.png 1536w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-2048x1311.png 2048w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-1320x845.png 1320w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-1100x704.png 1100w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-500x320.png 500w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-2-600x384.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><br \/>\n<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Obviously, the year 2023 was a relatively active period for both. The number of WAC\u2019s monthly statements significantly declines since 2024, whereas the official ones, overall, remain steadily high.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Figure 3<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4103 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-1024x655.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"655\" srcset=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-1024x655.png 1024w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-768x492.png 768w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-1536x983.png 1536w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-2048x1311.png 2048w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-1320x845.png 1320w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-1100x704.png 1100w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-500x320.png 500w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-3-600x384.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Notably, as Figure 3 indicates, periods of relatively higher issuance of irredentist statements by both actors coincide with major political-military developments between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For example, January 2023, one month following the blockade of Lachin corridor in December 2022 (European Parliament, 2023), was a relatively active period which even surged in March 2023, when the tensions and mutual accusations between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensified (MFA of the Republic of Armenia, 2023). As the graph shows, WAC was most active in the months prior, during and after the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive on Artsakh, which was even vividly visualized in Figure 2. The high intensity remained in December 2023, when Armenia and Azerbaijan released a joint statement on normalizing relations between the two countries (The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 2023). Overall, contrary to WAC activity, the government\u2019s propaganda remained steadily high both in 2024 and 2025, especially following the signing of the trilateral declaration by the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and the US on 8 August in Washington (US Department of State, 2025).<\/p>\n<p>The dotted smooth line was added to the chart to reduce noise in the data (short-term fluctuations) and highlight the overall trend. As it indicates, most irredentist statements were made in 2023, which gradually decreases starting from 2024, but again becomes steadily high at the end of the year and throughout 2025 (on average, more than 15 irredentist statements per-month).<\/p>\n<p>Counting the monthly averages and visualizing by year further clarifies this picture. As Figure 4. represents, the average number of WAC statements per month sharply declined from 19 in 2023 to 4 in 2024, and to 2 in 2025. Whereas the official statements experienced only a slight decrease in 2024 (from 21 in 2023 to 13 in 2024) but grew again in 2025 (16 statements per month).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Figure 4<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4106 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-1024x655.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"655\" srcset=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-1024x655.png 1024w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-768x492.png 768w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-1536x983.png 1536w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-2048x1311.png 2048w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-1320x845.png 1320w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-1100x704.png 1100w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-500x320.png 500w, https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Figure-4-600x384.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As seen, the narratives around \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d promoted by the Azerbaijani government and the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d are deeply anchored in irredentism towards Armenia, a policy of making territorial claims from the neighboring sovereign state that its supporters consider \u201chistorically\u201d or \u201crightfully\u201d theirs, with additional demands for \u201cpolitical\u201d and \u201ccultural\u201d rights. Furthermore, the data show that spikes in irredentist sentiment largely coincided with key political and military developments between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In other words, the more tense or tumultuous the two countries\u2019 relations get, the more vocal the Azerbaijani government\u2019s and the WAC\u2019s irredentist voices become.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The data reveals several clear and troubling trends in the re-emergence and rise to greater prominence of the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d in the post-2020 period, along with the broader state rhetoric surrounding it.<\/p>\n<p>As the data tells, the irredentist statements intensified sharply throughout 2023, coinciding with the blockade of the Lachin Corridor and the forced displacement of the entire Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. This synchronization underscores how the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d narrative was used to justify, accompany, or normalize coercive actions on the ground.<\/p>\n<p>At the beginning of 2024, a notable decline in WAC\u2019s public activity became evident, while the official ones remained steadily high. The high frequency of the official irredentist statements, which continued in 2025, likely reflected the government\u2019s perceived \u201ctriumph\u201d, especially following the announcement of finalizing exchanges on peace treaty draft in March 2025 (MFA of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2025) and the signing of the Washington declaration in August 2025, an event publicly framed as the successful completion of Azerbaijan\u2019s strategic objectives (Azertag, 2025).<\/p>\n<p>Throughout this period, WAC functioned as a state-orchestrated smokescreen, designed to create a facade of moral equivalence between Armenia and Azerbaijan. By portraying the conflict as a symmetrical one in which \u201cboth sides\u201d possess historical grievances and alleged \u201crights to return,\u201d the Azerbaijani government weaponized an NGO platform to win the diplomatic argument of <em>both-sides-ism<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Yet, the evidence demonstrates that the rhetoric of \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d bears no relation to genuine human-rights discourse. Following Azerbaijan\u2019s military victory in 2020 and the state policy of erasing Armenian cultural traces from Nagorno-Karabakh (European Parliament, 2022), this rhetoric has been repurposed into an expansionist policy aimed at Armenia itself. The chairperson of the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community,\u201d commenting on the Washington documents, openly declared that the organization would continue its efforts toward a \u201creturn to ancestral lands\u201d (APA, 2025), a direct reference to the sovereign territory of Armenia. Moreover, the presidential administration and academic institutions of Azerbaijan alongside the WAC jointly organized a festival-congress titled &#8220;Return to Western Azerbaijan&#8221; in Nakhijevan on 18-19 June 2026. As announced, the program includes presentations on \u201chistorical heritage of Western Azerbaijan and prospects for return\u201d (Report.az, 2026), which further demonstrates how the irredentist discourse of official, academic and civil society institutions is closely aligned and complement each other, thus reinforcing its political salience.<\/p>\n<p>The \u201cZangezur Corridor\u201d concept, which was first officially articulated in the 2021 Shushi Declaration signed between Turkey and Azerbaijan on 16 June 2021 (President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2021) and has since been regularly invoked in national political discourse, represents yet another manifestation of this same expansionist logic, an attempt to redefine geography, sovereignty, and connectivity according to unilateral Azerbaijani ambitions.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, the political euphoria following the signing of the Washington documents in August 2025 should not obscure the realities exposed by this rhetoric. As the data shows, paper agreements alone have limited capacity to restrain expansionist intent when a political mindset is driven by historic grievance, dominance, and triumphalism. Supported by a revitalized alliance with Turkey, Azerbaijan\u2019s post-war strategy appears focused not on reconciliation, but on extending its sphere of control, militarily, politically, or economically, into Armenia itself.<\/p>\n<p>Taken together, these findings confirm that WAC operates not as a genuine civil-society actor, but as a state-backed instrument of narrative warfare. It merges propaganda, diplomacy, and irredentism into a coherent political tool. Its activity illustrates how authoritarian governments instrumentalize NGO facades to legitimize aggression, manipulate historical narratives, and erode the boundaries between public diplomacy and state propaganda.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond the Armenian context, this case demonstrates how modern authoritarian regimes employ propaganda ecosystems to fabricate moral symmetry, exploit international legal language, and reframe aggression as grievance. Recognizing and exposing such narrative manipulation is essential not only for understanding the current phase of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but also for strengthening global mechanisms against the normalization of revisionist, expansionist policies cloaked in the language of human rights.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Reference List<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Azerbaijani Press Agency. (16 August 2025). Community will continue its activities aimed at return of Western Azerbaijanis to their homeland \u2013 Chairman. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.apa.az\/western-azerbaijan\/community-will-continue-its-activities-aimed-at-return-of-western-azerbaijanis-to-their-homeland-chairman-475254\">https:\/\/en.apa.az\/western-azerbaijan\/community-will-continue-its-activities-aimed-at-return-of-western-azerbaijanis-to-their-homeland-chairman-475254<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Azertag. (13 March 2025). FM Bayramov: Negotiations on draft peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan completed. <a href=\"https:\/\/azertag.az\/en\/xeber\/fm_bayramov_negotiations_on_draft_peace_agreement_between_armenia_and_azerbaijan_completed-3461439\">https:\/\/azertag.az\/en\/xeber\/fm_bayramov_negotiations_on_draft_peace_agreement_between_armenia_and_azerbaijan_completed-3461439<\/a><\/li>\n<li>European Parliament. (10 March 2022). European Parliament resolution of 10 March 2022 on the destruction of cultural heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh (2022\/2582(RSP)). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/doceo\/document\/TA-9-2022-0080_EN.html\">https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/doceo\/document\/TA-9-2022-0080_EN.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li>European Parliament. (9 February 2023). EU action to stop Azerbaijan\u2019s blockade of the Lachin corridor. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/doceo\/document\/E-9-2023-000405_EN.html\">https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/doceo\/document\/E-9-2023-000405_EN.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Grimmer, J., Roberts, M. E., &amp; Stewart, B. M. (2022). <em>Text as Data: A New Framework for Machine Learning and the Social Sciences<\/em>. Princeton University Press. 160, 284-286.<\/li>\n<li>MFA of Armenia. (05 March 2023). Statement of the foreign ministry of Armenia on the ambush by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/interviews-articles-and-comments\/2023\/03\/05\/azerbaijani_ambush\/11906\">https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/interviews-articles-and-comments\/2023\/03\/05\/azerbaijani_ambush\/11906<\/a><\/li>\n<li>MFA of Armenia. (08 March 2023). Statement of the MFA of Armenia on the disinformation spread by Azerbaijan. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/interviews-articles-and-comments\/2023\/03\/08\/statement_azdisinformation\/11912\">https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/interviews-articles-and-comments\/2023\/03\/08\/statement_azdisinformation\/11912<\/a><\/li>\n<li>MFA of Armenia. (16 March 2023). Statement of MFA of Armenia regarding the false claims and bellicose statements of the President of Azerbaijan. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/interviews-articles-and-comments\/2023\/03\/16\/mfa_statement_\/11926\">https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/interviews-articles-and-comments\/2023\/03\/16\/mfa_statement_\/11926<\/a><\/li>\n<li>MFA of Armenia. (18 March 2023). Statement of the ministry of foreign affairs of the Republic of Armenia. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/interviews-articles-and-comments\/2023\/03\/18\/mfa_statement\/11929\">https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/interviews-articles-and-comments\/2023\/03\/18\/mfa_statement\/11929<\/a><\/li>\n<li>MFA of Azerbaijan. (13 March 2025). Statement on conclusion of the negotiations on the text of the draft agreement on peace and the establishment of interstate relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. <a href=\"https:\/\/mfa.gov.az\/en\/news\/no10525\">https:\/\/mfa.gov.az\/en\/news\/no10525<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Report.az. (20 April 2026). Nakhchivan to host &#8216;Return to Western Azerbaijan&#8217; event. https:\/\/report.az\/en\/domestic-politics\/nakhchivan-to-host-return-to-western-azerbaijan-event<\/li>\n<li>The Milli Majlis of the Republic of Azerbaijan. (23 November 2024). News: The announcement by the Initiative Group for the Return to Western Azerbaijan of The Milli Majlis of the Republic of Azerbaijan. <a href=\"https:\/\/meclis.gov.az\/news.php?id=2045&amp;lang=en\">https:\/\/meclis.gov.az\/news.php?id=2045&amp;lang=en<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. (7 December 2023). Press releases: Joint statement of the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.primeminister.am\/en\/press-release\/item\/2023\/12\/07\/Announcement\/\">https:\/\/www.primeminister.am\/en\/press-release\/item\/2023\/12\/07\/Announcement\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li>President of the Republic of Azerbaijan. (16 June 2021). Shushi Declaration on Allied Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Turkey. <a href=\"https:\/\/president.az\/en\/articles\/view\/52122\">https:\/\/president.az\/en\/articles\/view\/52122<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Report.az. (10 April 2026). Nakhijevan to host \u201cReturn to Western Azerbaijan\u201d event. <a href=\"https:\/\/report.az\/en\/domestic-politics\/nakhchivan-to-host-return-to-western-azerbaijan-event\">https:\/\/report.az\/en\/domestic-politics\/nakhchivan-to-host-return-to-western-azerbaijan-event<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Saparov, A. (2024). Normalizing conflict \u2013 concealing genocide? Expert neutrality in the Armenian\u2013Azerbaijani conflict. <em>Journal of Postcolonial Writing<\/em>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/14683857.2024.2384138#d1e682\">https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/14683857.2024.2384138#d1e682<\/a><\/li>\n<li>US Department of State. (8 August 2025). Joint declaration between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025JointDeclaration.AzerbaijanArmenia.pdf\">https:\/\/www.state.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025JointDeclaration.AzerbaijanArmenia.pdf<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Western Azerbaijan Community. (24 December 2022). Banner\/Mr. President Ilham Aliyev&#8217;s meeting in Western Azerbaijan Community. <a href=\"https:\/\/westaz.org\/en\/banner\/cenab-prezident-ilham-eliyevin-qerbi-azerbaycan-icmasinda-gorusu\">https:\/\/westaz.org\/en\/banner\/cenab-prezident-ilham-eliyevin-qerbi-azerbaycan-icmasinda-gorusu<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Western Azerbaijan Community. (2025). General information. <a href=\"https:\/\/westaz.org\/en\/%C4%B0CMA\/umumi-melumat\">https:\/\/westaz.org\/en\/%C4%B0CMA\/umumi-melumat<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Wickham, H., &amp; Grolemund, G. (2017). <em>R for data science: Import, tidy, transform, visualize, and model data<\/em>. O&#8217;Reilly Media. 327.<\/li>\n<li>Media.AZ. (20 December 2025). \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043b\u043e \u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u041e\u0431\u0449\u0438\u043d\u044b \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0410\u0437\u0435\u0440\u0431\u0430\u0439\u0434\u0436\u0430\u043d\u0430. <a href=\"https:\/\/media.az\/politika\/proshlo-obshee-sobranie-obshiny-zapadnogo-azerbajdzhana\">https:\/\/media.az\/politika\/proshlo-obshee-sobranie-obshiny-zapadnogo-azerbajdzhana<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Need in \u201cNarrative Equilibrium\u201d and Its Strategic Value In the pre-2020 period, the Azerbaijani government consistently sought to achieve what might be called a narrative equilibrium with Armenia. This effort was characterized by sustained attempts to construct or amplify stories of Azerbaijani victimhood, particularly through campaigns to document or, at times, fabricate alleged atrocity<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":4086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Data-Driven Insights into the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d Discourse: How the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d and State Propaganda Construct the Narrative - Genesis Armenia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/genesisarmenia.am\/en\/data-driven-insights-into-the-western-azerbaijan-discourse-how-the-western-azerbaijan-community-and-state-propaganda-construct-the-narrative\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Data-Driven Insights into the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan\u201d Discourse: How the \u201cWestern Azerbaijan Community\u201d and State Propaganda Construct the Narrative - Genesis Armenia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Need in \u201cNarrative Equilibrium\u201d and Its Strategic Value In the pre-2020 period, the Azerbaijani government consistently sought to achieve what might be called a narrative equilibrium with Armenia. 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