Dual game: How Turkey benefits from the Iran crisis
Research
High voter turnout is considered a cornerstone of democratic legitimacy, as it signals broad public engagement and reduces the risk that election outcomes are determined by narrow segments of society. When turnout is low, results become disproportionately shaped by limited groups, often distorting the population’s true political priorities. Moreover, low electoral participation can entrench political stagnation and strengthen authoritarian decision-making mechanisms. In contrast, high turnout—especially above 70%—tends to reflect a more inclusive electorate, reinforcing the mandate of elected governments and increasing the perceived fairness of the process.
A wide body of political science research emphasizes that higher participation is associated with stronger democratic consolidation and greater trust in institutions. Conversely, low turnout creates a gap in political legitimacy, which can encourage the rise of marginal groups operating under the informal patronage of those in power.
A vivid example is the Hungarian parliamentary elections held this April, which recorded exceptionally high turnout. Reports indicate that 79.6% of eligible voters participated—a record in the electoral history of this former communist state. This surge in participation coincided with a decisive political shift, bringing an end to Orbán’s 16-year rule. Its significance went beyond mere procedural statistics: it broadened representation, particularly among younger and urban voters, and amplified demand for political change. High voter turnout can substantially reshape electoral outcomes and redirect political trajectories.
Similarly, in other democracies such as Sweden, consistently high participation rates—often exceeding 80%—have been linked to stable governance. While institutional and cultural factors differ across countries, the pattern remains consistent: when turnout reaches or surpasses the 70–80% threshold, elections are more likely to produce outcomes that reflect the full diversity of public preferences, thereby strengthening legitimacy. In this sense, high turnout is not merely a quantitative indicator, but a qualitative measure of democratic health.
For Armenia, the issue of high participation in the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, 2026 is of existential importance. These elections will take place amid intense political polarization, security concerns, ongoing attacks against the Armenian Apostolic Holy Church, and a large share of undecided voters (estimated in recent polls at up to 40%), making turnout a decisive factor in determining the outcome.
Historically, voter turnout in Armenia has been moderate: around 49.4% in the 2021 parliamentary elections and 48.6% in 2018, while turnout in the 2023 Yerevan municipal elections stood at 28.4%.
This suggests that even a 20–25 percentage point increase in June would bring entirely new segments of the electorate into the process. Given that approximately 2.4 million citizens are eligible to vote, the scale of mobilization will directly determine whether the resulting government reflects a narrow provincial base or a genuinely broad social consensus. In a country facing deep internal divisions and external pressures, high turnout would strengthen the legitimacy and stability of the political system in the crucial years ahead.
Arsen Gasparyan
PhD in Political Science
